The Dutch online gambling market is currently staring into a regulatory abyss. With the latest data confirming that the legal market’s share of gross gaming revenue has cratered to just 49%, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) is no longer just managing a market—it’s presiding over a mass exodus. That’s a problem because the very policies designed to protect the Dutch public are effectively handing the keys to the kingdom to the black market. When nearly half of all betting activity happens outside the reach of the KSA, the entire premise of the 2021 KOA Act begins to look like a failed experiment.
The Cost of Regulatory Zeal
Look at the numbers. In early 2025, the legal market was pulling in €600 million in GGR, a sharp 16% decline from the €697 million recorded just six months prior. Policymakers seem convinced that tighter deposit limits and advertising bans are the solution to problem gambling. But here’s the thing: the market is voting with its feet. When you restrict the legal experience to the point of frustration, you don’t stop the gambler; you just change their destination. The black market doesn’t care about deposit limits or mandatory cooling-off periods. It offers a frictionless, albeit dangerous, alternative that is currently winning the war for the Dutch player’s wallet.
What’s striking is the government’s stubborn refusal to acknowledge the feedback loop. The 2025 tax hike was supposed to generate €108 million in additional revenue. It delivered a pathetic €2 million. That’s not just a shortfall; it’s a total collapse of fiscal policy. The Ministry of Finance and the KSA are now left holding a bag of empty promises while the unlicensed sector thrives on the regulatory vacuum. Operators are being squeezed by rising compliance costs and a shrinking customer base, while the government continues to tighten the noose with plans for a total advertising ban. It’s a classic case of regulatory capture where the regulator is so focused on the optics of safety that they’ve lost sight of the actual market reality.
A Market in Freefall
We’re seeing a clear divergence between the government’s narrative and the ground truth. While the KSA touts the success of its responsible gaming rules, the reality is that the channelisation rate has slipped from 51% at the end of 2024 to 49% today. That two-percent drop represents tens of thousands of players moving from a monitored, taxed environment to the shadows. The trade body VNLOK has been vocal about this, warning that these backfiring policies are actively incentivising the unlicensed sector. They aren’t wrong. If you make the legal product inferior, you shouldn’t be surprised when the consumer chooses the alternative.
So what does this mean for the future of the Dutch industry? We are looking at a potential death spiral for licensed operators. As the government prepares to finalize a complete ban on online gambling advertising, the ability for legal brands to acquire new customers will be effectively neutered. Meanwhile, the black market—which operates without the burden of marketing restrictions or tax obligations—will continue to feast on the scraps. The KSA might be renewing licenses, as we saw with the eight operators in September 2026, but those licenses are becoming increasingly worthless in a market that is rapidly losing its regulated status. Unless there is a radical pivot toward a more balanced regulatory framework, the Netherlands is on track to become a cautionary tale of how to destroy a perfectly viable iGaming market in the name of safety.